C 2 and Agility Using Simulation as a Knowledge Discovery Tool in an Adversary C 2 Network

This paper discusses a discrete-event simulation model of an adversary social network using Micro Saint Simulation software. The purpose is for knowledge discovery from the many interactions and relationships among and between the adversary players in the Iraqi conflicts, especially on the attack targets, weapons used, and the motives of attack. The model developed to solve the problem is an Adversary Network Simulation (ANS). ANS is a rule-based driven simulation that reasons from the strategic rules used by the adversaries. The ANS results provide important information in understanding the adversary behaviors in terms of selecting targets for attacks and the methods used in the attacks. The results show that coalition forces were targeted 68% of the time, Police stations 12.8%, mosques, 10.2%, malls and markets; 5.5%, and other public places, 3.2%. Most of the attacks to the coalition forces were from Al-Zawahari army, al-Qaida, Islamic Fundamentals, and Foreign agents. It was also revealed that ethic fighting sponsored by rogue politicians led to attacks on the mosques.